This is the most anticipated Rutgers basketball season of the modern era. The Scarlet Knights come into the year with a blend of experience, elite talent, and one of the most underrated coaching staffs in the country. Despite the excitement surrounding this team, opinions vary widely about their ultimate potential.
Some pundits peg Rutgers as a top four team in the Big Ten, while others place them in the bottom half of the league or somewhere in the middle. It’s easy to see why there’s such a wide range of views. This is a polarizing squad, but one with undeniable potential. When I think about how good Rutgers could be this season, two key factors stand out as the determining factors.
Will Rutgers freshmen play at an All American level
Rutgers has two potential future NBA stars in their freshman class, Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey. Both players are highly rated and are headed for the NBA draft, but there’s a difference between being a top pro prospect and having an immediate, game changing impact at the college level. Rutgers needs to get the All American version of these freshmen if they are to reach their ceiling.
Not every elite freshman enters college and dominates the landscape. We’ve seen draft picks like Cole Anthony and Mo Bamba be pretty good in college but fall short of being All-American caliber players, which lowered the overall ceiling of both UNC and Texas. Compare that to players like Zion Williamson or Paolo Banchero, who were national stars from day one and played huge roles in their teams’ success. Paolo was unanimous 2nd team All American while Zion won the National Player of the Year award. The question for Rutgers is, which version of Harper and Bailey will they get? Talents who contributes at a decent level, or guys who take over and put the entire country on notice.
I want to reiterate, it’s not about their NBA potential; that’s already set. It’s about what impact they’ll have this season. A freshman earning First Team All-Big Ten and All-American honors is rare. The last freshman to accomplish that in the Big Ten was D’Angelo Russell back in 2015 for Ohio State. Rutgers basketball’s ceiling will be determined by how Harper and Bailey transition into the college game.
Rutgers three stars need to gel
While the freshmen will be pivotal, team chemistry could make or break this Rutgers squad. Most of Rutgers’ production is expected to come from a core of Jeremiah Williams, Dylan Harper, and Ace Bailey. Williams showed last season that he could run the offense, score, and make plays at a high level. However, this season, with more playmakers around him, his role may have to adjust.
Williams will need to stay engaged when the offense isn’t running through him. Harper and Bailey will likely have the ball in their hands quite, which could lead to fewer touches for Williams. How will he handle not always being the point of attack? And more importantly, can he improve his outside shooting to remain effective in an off-ball role? Last season, Williams was the only creator so he took a limited eight catch and shoot 3pt attempts, converting just 25%. He will need to expand his game to complement the high-level talent surrounding him without getting too frustrated.
Head coach Steve Pikiell did a fantastic job adding transfer portal pieces to support the core, but for Rutgers to truly click, the main three players have to be on the same page. If someone has to sacrifice their role for the greater good, it needs to be embraced. Balancing the egos and individual agendas in such a talented group will be critical. Pikiell has shown he can lead and develop teams, but this level of talent and expectation brings new challenges.
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